1.2 TB mortality

Box 1.2.1 summarizes the methods used to produce estimates of TB mortality between 2010 and 2025.

For consistency with international standards (1), a clear distinction is made between deaths from TB in people without HIV (classified as deaths caused by TB) and deaths from TB in people with HIV (classified as deaths caused by HIV, with TB as a contributory cause).

Globally in 2025, there were an estimated 1.0 million deaths among HIV-negative people (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 0.92–1.08 million) and an estimated 137 000 deaths among people with HIV (95% UI: 109 000–168 000) (Fig. 1.2.1). The combined total was 1.13 million (95% UI: 1.05–1.22 million).

Fig. 1.2.1 Global trends in the estimated number of deaths caused by TB (a) and the TB mortality rate (b), 2010–2025

Following increases in the estimated number of TB deaths during COVID-related disruptions to TB diagnosis and treatment in 2020 and 2021, numbers have subsequently fallen. There was a 4% reduction between 2024 and 2025 and a 21% reduction compared with 2021. This further progress resulted in the achievement of a significant global milestone in 2025: a reduction of 35% in the annual number of people dying from TB between 2015 and 2025 – reaching the first (2020) milestone of the End TB Strategy, albeit 5 years behind schedule. However, the decline is still far from the 2025 milestone of the WHO End TB Strategy – a 75% reduction between 2015 and 2025.

In 2025, most of the deaths caused by TB among HIV-negative people occurred in the WHO regions of South-East Asia (39%), Africa (30%) and the Western Pacific (20%), with smaller shares in the Eastern Mediterranean (8%), the Americas (2.3%) and Europe (1.4%). Most deaths from TB among people with HIV occurred in the WHO African Region (Table 1.2.1).

Table 1.2.1 Global and regional estimates of TB mortality, numbers (in thousands) and rates (per 100 000 population) in 2025

In 2025, 5 countries accounted for about half of the global number of deaths from TB: India (23%), Indonesia (11%), the Democratic Republic of the Congo (6.1%), South Africa (4.7%) and Pakistan (4.4%) (Fig. 1.2.2).

Fig. 1.2.2 Geographic distribution of the estimated global number of deaths from TB in 2025

Globally in 2025, 51% of the HIV-negative people who died from TB were adult men, 33% were adult women and 16% were children and young adolescents (aged <15 years) (Fig. 1.2.3).

Among people with HIV who died from TB, 52% were adult men, 47% were adult women and 1.3% were children and young adolescents.

Fig. 1.2.3 Global distribution of estimated TB mortality in HIV-negative people and in people with HIV by age group and sex (female in purple; male in orange), 2025

In 2025, an estimated total of 578 000 adult men (aged ≥15 years) died from TB (95% UI: 388 000–769 000): 508 000 among those HIV-negative (95% UI: 354 000–661 000) and 71 000 among those with HIV (95% UI: 34 000–108 000). An estimated total of 396 000 adult women (aged ≥15 years) died from TB (95% UI: 254 000–538 000): 332 000 among those HIV-negative (95% UI: 230 000–433 000) and 64 000 among those with HIV (95% UI: 24 000–104 000).

In 2025, an estimated total of 158 000 children and young adolescents (<15 years) died from TB (95% UI: 107 000–210 000): 157 000 among those HIV-negative (95% UI: 105 000–208 000) and 1 800 among those with HIV (95% UI: 1 300–2 400). Among HIV-negative children and young adolescents, the estimated number of TB deaths in 2025 was 110 000 among children aged <5 years (95% UI: 70 000–150 000); and 46 000 in older children and young adolescents aged 5–14 years (95% UI: 35 000–57 000).

The latest year for which WHO has published estimates of global deaths by cause is 2023. In that year, TB was the 13th leading cause of death worldwide (Fig. 1.2.4) and the leading cause of death from a single infectious agent.

Fig. 1.2.4 Top 15 causes of death worldwide in 2023 ^a,b

Since 2010, deaths from TB among HIV-negative people have fallen much more slowly than deaths caused by HIV and were also more impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic (Fig. 1.2.5).

Fig. 1.2.5 Global trends in the estimated number of deaths caused by TB and HIV (in millions), 2010–2025 ^a,b

The TB mortality rate fell in all of the six WHO regions in 2025 (Fig. 1.2.6).

Fig. 1.2.6 Trends in estimated TB mortality rates by WHO region, 2010–2025

Trends in the absolute number of TB deaths at regional level vary (Fig. 1.2.7). The pattern of a fall in the absolute number of deaths caused by TB (including those among people with HIV) until 2019, followed by increases during the COVID-19 pandemic and then declines starting in either 2022 or 2023, is evident in the WHO European, South-East Asia and Western Pacific regions.

In the Eastern Mediterranean Region, an increase in 2020 and 2021 was followed by a decline in 2022, then by a small increase between 2022 and 2024, and then a decrease in 2025. In the Region of the Americas, the estimated number of deaths caused by TB peaked in 2024 and declined in 2025. In the African Region, the estimated number of deaths caused by TB has fallen year on year since 2011.

Fig. 1.2.7 Trends in the estimated absolute number of TB deaths in HIV-negative people and people with HIV (in thousands) by WHO region, 2010–2025

The WHO African and European regions are the closest to reaching the 2025 milestone of the End TB Strategy, with reductions of 50% and 51% respectively between 2015 and 2025. The 4 other WHO regions are still far from the 2025 milestone of the End TB Strategy, with progress up to 2019 set back by disruptions during the COVID-19 pandemic and its aftermath. Reductions were 31% in the South-East Asia Region, 8.6% in the Eastern Mediterranean Region and 5.2% in the Western Pacific Region. In the WHO Region of the Americas, the estimated number of deaths from TB increased by 14% between 2015 and 2025.

Trends in TB deaths by income group are shown in Fig. 1.2.8.

Fig. 1.2.8 Trends in the estimated absolute number of TB deaths in HIV-negative people and people with HIV (in thousands) by income group, 2010–2025

The regional distribution of TB deaths by age and sex in 2025 varies by WHO region (Fig. 1.2.9).

Fig. 1.2.9 Regional distribution of estimated TB mortality in HIV-negative people by age group and sex (female in purple; male in orange), 2025

Progress in reducing the total number of deaths caused by TB (among people with and without HIV) at country level is highly variable (Fig. 1.2.10). By 2025, a total of 89 countries had achieved net reductions of at least 35% since 2015, thus reaching or surpassing the first (2020) milestone of the End TB Strategy, albeit with a delay of up to 5 years. These countries are mostly in the WHO African and European regions. Four of the 30 high TB burden countries outside these regions have reached the 35% milestone: Bangladesh, China, India and Viet Nam. Of these, China and India reached the milestone in 2025.

At the other extreme, there are 40 countries where the number of deaths caused by TB in 2025 was more than 5% above the level of 2015, most noticeably countries in the WHO Region of the Americas.

Fig. 1.2.10 Change (%) in the estimated number of deaths caused by TB among HIV-negative people and people with HIV, 2025 compared with 2015

Trends in the total number of deaths caused by TB (among people with and without HIV) in the 30 high TB burden countries are also highly variable. Between 2019 and 2021, striking increases are estimated to have occurred in countries that experienced major shortfalls in TB notifications in 2020 and 2021 (e.g. Indonesia, Myanmar), while in others previous declines have slowed or stabilized.

In 2025, the best estimate of the total number of deaths caused by TB suggested that the 2025 milestone of the WHO End TB Strategy (a 75% reduction by 2025, compared with 2015) was close to being reached in 7 high TB burden countries: the Central African Republic, Kenya, Namibia, Nigeria, South Sudan, the United Republic of Tanzania and Zambia (Fig. 1.2.11).

Fig. 1.2.11 Trends in the estimated absolute number (in thousands) of deaths caused by TB among HIV-negative people and people with HIV in the 30 high TB burden countries^a, 2010–2025

Of the 2 global TB watchlist countries, Liberia has made good progress towards the 2025 milestone (Fig. 1.2.12), with a net reduction of 49% between 2015 and 2025.

Fig. 1.2.12 Trends in the estimated absolute number (in thousands) of deaths caused by TB among HIV-negative people and people with HIV in the two global TB watchlist countries^a, 2010–2025

There is considerable national variation in the TB mortality rate; in 2025, most of the countries with the highest rates were in the African Region (Fig. 1.2.13).

Fig. 1.2.13 Estimated TB mortality rates in HIV-negative people, 2025

There is also considerable variation in the case fatality rate (CFR) i.e. the estimated proportion of people who develop TB that die from the disease (Fig. 1.2.14). Globally, the CFR was 10.7% in 2025, down from 11.2% in 2024 and 11.6% in 2023 (and below the pre-pandemic level of 13.8% in 2019).

Fig. 1.2.14 Estimates of the case fatality rate (CFR), including HIV-negative people and people with HIV, 2025

For all countries, except for Brazil, TB mortality among people with HIV was estimated as the product of TB incidence and the CFR, with the latter accounting for the protective effect of antiretroviral treatment (ART). For Brazil, detailed data from the vital registration system on the number of deaths from TB in people living with HIV were used to estimate TB mortality among people with HIV.

For 6 countries with the biggest absolute reductions in TB notifications during the COVID-19 pandemic that were a clear departure from historic trends, estimates of TB mortality in 2020–2025 were based on country-specific dynamic models: Indonesia, India, Kenya, Myanmar, Nepal and Pakistan. These methods are described in detail in a technical appendix. For all other countries, the same methods as those used for the period 2010–2019 continued to be applied.

Country-specific details are available in the Global tuberculosis report app and country profiles.

Note : All of the percentage reductions or increases referred to in the text of this webpage were calculated based on unrounded numbers, as opposed to the rounded numbers that appear in the interactive graphics.

References

1. International statistical classification of diseases and health related problems (The) ICD-10. Geneva: World Health Organization; 2016 ( https://icd.who.int/browse10/2016/en).

2. UNAIDS Special report for the 26th International AIDS Conference: united to end AIDS. Geneva: Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS; 2026 (https://www.unaids.org/en/resources/documents/2026/20260727_special_report_AIDS2026). Licence: CC BY-NC-SA 3.0 IGO.

3. Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER) [website]. Geneva: World Health Organization; 2021 ( https://gather-statement.org/).

4. GBD results tool [website]. Global Health Data Exchange; 2020 ( https://ghdx.healthdata.org/gbd-results-tool).

   
   

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